Path Dependence & How the World Turns: Dominoes, Prospects & New Hope‏

On January 5, 2012, in Economic Commentary, Market Perspective, by admin

Thanks to many for your questions about this deleveraging cycle, which have stimulated my mind.  Let me put down some of my thoughts into words! I agree that we are at “risk” of seeing the Post World War II “Great Debt Super Cycle” come to an end. Just as this long term post-WW2 credit expansion [...]

Big Rally Sparked By Fed’s (Indirect) Bailout of European Banks

On December 1, 2011, in Economic Commentary, Market Perspective, by admin

Policy Makers’ Attempt to Stave off European Depression Reminiscent of Fall, 2008 Stimulus Widely Credited with Staving off US Depression November 30, 2011 1.             In a move reminiscent of the Fed’s contribution to the 2008 U.S. Bailout, dollars are being printed to provide emergency funds via the ECB to major European Banks. This, combined with this [...]

Recession Knocking at the Door: Part 2

On September 26, 2011, in Economic Commentary, by admin

Nothing has happened to change my mind that “recession is knocking at our door.” While we could say that the directions of the market is path dependent, there is little to suggest that political leaders are prepared to face the tough decisions until we face crisis conditions (at which time they hopefully won’t “let a good [...]