April 2012 Market Commentary – Points for Consideration

On April 11, 2012, in Market Perspective, by admin

I’m just not overly bullish on anything short term but remain bullish on the USA in the medium term.  The long run is another story for another time, but the “Long-Long” run is a world of renewed US manufacturing, new technological innovation, and effective North American Energy Independence.  A major counter trend rally in Financials [...]

This “NBA” Market

On February 19, 2012, in Market Perspective, by admin

Doug Kass calls this an “NBA Market.” Nothing But Apple. And the market loves Apple.   Subtract Apple’s earnings and the bounced back earnings from the ‘hated’ AIG & the earnings growth from the remaining S&P 500 stocks was only 1.1%. Observing its momentum, it’s hard to see anything stopping Apple’s stock from taking out [...]

Path Dependence & How the World Turns: Dominoes, Prospects & New Hope‏

On January 5, 2012, in Economic Commentary, Market Perspective, by admin

Thanks to many for your questions about this deleveraging cycle, which have stimulated my mind.  Let me put down some of my thoughts into words! I agree that we are at “risk” of seeing the Post World War II “Great Debt Super Cycle” come to an end. Just as this long term post-WW2 credit expansion [...]

Big Rally Sparked By Fed’s (Indirect) Bailout of European Banks

On December 1, 2011, in Economic Commentary, Market Perspective, by admin

Policy Makers’ Attempt to Stave off European Depression Reminiscent of Fall, 2008 Stimulus Widely Credited with Staving off US Depression November 30, 2011 1.             In a move reminiscent of the Fed’s contribution to the 2008 U.S. Bailout, dollars are being printed to provide emergency funds via the ECB to major European Banks. This, combined with this [...]

Recession Knocking at the Door: Part 2

On September 26, 2011, in Economic Commentary, by admin

Nothing has happened to change my mind that “recession is knocking at our door.” While we could say that the directions of the market is path dependent, there is little to suggest that political leaders are prepared to face the tough decisions until we face crisis conditions (at which time they hopefully won’t “let a good [...]

Market Focus: Aug 24

On August 31, 2011, in Market Perspective, by admin

The question of whether the U.S. falls back into recession is critical for equity positioning. We have an overdue bounce-back in anticipation of Helicopter Ben Bernanke’s Jackson Hole Speech on Friday. Expect the value of risk assets to rise if we have a repeat of Bernanke’s promise of QE-2. Otherwise, disappointment could lead to further [...]

Market Focus: Aug 16

On August 16, 2011, in Market Perspective, by admin

Thursday’s rally proved to be the beginning of a major short term bounce as I suspected in last Thursday’s e-mail. But more important is whether this bounce preceding tomorrow’s Merkel-Sarkosy Paris summit will produce agreement with sufficient power to stop the destructive feedback loop that has gained power from Greece & Ireland to Portugal, Spain, [...]

Market Focus: Aug 11

On August 12, 2011, in Market Perspective, by admin

Our main focus is on the US multinationals which should bounce here after an almost perfect technically 61.8% retracement in the S&Ps gains. We began bargain hunting, buying back other names. Concerted worldwide stimulus suggests that everything should bounce here. Also lock in some nice yields with MLPs. Tuesday’s Franco-German summit should keep the bears [...]

Market Commentary (July 2011)

On July 27, 2011, in Market Perspective, by admin

Before acting on my advice, let me first offer a caveat that markets imperfectly reflect interdependent economies, each of which are complex adaptive systems that dynamically interact with other complex adaptive economies in a highly interconnected and diverse adaptive worldwide economy under conditions of uncertainty and imperfect knowledge leading to emergent outcomes that are inherently path dependent. Ability to adapt [...]

Risks to Equities Too Large Relative to Rewards

On June 12, 2011, in Market Perspective, by Wayne Jankowske

Two Articles: (1) Europe (2) Deleveraging. My Guess is that they put another finger in the dike for now, eventually allowing one more surge higher in the equity markets.  However, risks of equities now strike me as too high relative to rewards.   Risks are Also Too High in Money Market Fundswith ALMOST 1 TRILLION invested [...]